Election Day has arrived, and we here at the Wire wanted to give you a rundown of the major story lines heading up to the release of the results tonight at 8 p.m. We also want to recap how this election cycle has played out, and to offer suggestions on where to go and how to watch tonight as the returns roll in. Politics is many things – ugly at times, particularly in the last week before Election Day – but it can also be fun. Tonight should be one of those moments.
A STATUS QUO ELECTION, OR LEGISLATIVE UPHEAVEL?
The campaign managers, operatives, political strategists, analysts, pollsters, and workers down through the ranks are earning their money in this election cycle based on one thing – control of the state Senate.
As things currently stand, the Senate is under the control of the Majority Coalition Caucus, which is 24 Republicans and two Democrats, the departing Sen. Rodney Tom of Medina and Sen. Tim Sheldon of Potlatch, who’s trying to survive one of the stiffest re-election challenges.
When looking at which districts might flip, there’s four that come to mind – and all four are currently held by members of the MCC.
In the 45th District on the Eastside suburbs, Sen. Andy Hill, R-Redmond, is trying to fend off challenger Matt Isenhower. In the Whatcom County-based 42nd, Sen. Doug Ericksen, R-Ferndale, is attempting to defeat Seth Fleetwood. In the South Sound-centric 28th District, Sen. Steve O’Ban, R-University Place, is trying to beat Rep. Tami Green, D-Lakewood. And Sen. Sheldon is trying to outlast Democrat Irene Bowling in the Mason, Thurston and Kitsap County-based 35th District.
Defeating Sheldon might be the most gratifying to Democratic Party brass, but on a policy basis Ericksen and Hill offer the best opportunities to claim political capital moving forward. Hill, as chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, has been the party statesman on taxation and budget policy, while Ericksen has been the face of opposition to Gov. Jay Inslee and Democratic lawmakers’ climate change proposals.
An editor a lot wiser than myself once told me journalists should analyze – but never predict – when it comes to election results, and that’s what I’ll stick to here. We’ll wait for 8 p.m. to figure out what happens. We won’t sort out everything tonight, but we will learn a lot.
A POLICY REFERENDUM?
Washington state hasn’t gone into a midterm election cycle with a split between philosophical majorities of its legislative chambers since 1990. This year offers a rare opportunity for both parties to offer voters track records of what they have done as majority parties, and, on the Republican side at least, more than just saying what they would do.
A true Republican majority would go a long way to supporting party mantras that lightening tax burdens and loosening the regulatory climate have viable political support among Washington residents. A Democratic victory, on the other hand, would be the proof they need to say voters never supported the Majority Coalition Caucus’ positions in the first place.
A long-term issue is at play here as well. The political winds seem to be at Republicans’ backs this cycle – at the national level, a Democratic President with sagging approval ratings seems likely to propel Republicans into control of Congress, and no statewide races are on the ballots in Washington this year that traditionally draw Democrats to the polls.
Tom’s district, the 48th, seems certain to flip to a Democratic Caucus member with the election of Rep. Cyrus Habib, but three of the other seats Republicans need to hold aren’t in the Democratic stronghold of King County. Two – the 42nd and the 28th – have been in Republican control since 1998 and 1968, respectively. Sheldon has been in office since 1997.
One can’t escape the question – if this isn’t the Republicans’ year, when will they see another opportunity like this again?
THE GOVERNOR – AND 2016 SPECULATION
Gov. Inslee has made addressing climate change one of his top policy priorities for Washington state, and how he’ll do that – and what he can accomplish legislatively – will be among the biggest topics facing the Legislature in the 2015 session.
Inslee set forth a broad policy discussion last spring, when he signed an executive order commissioning studies, reports, and recommendations on a number of key issues surrounding climate change and the state’s carbon emissions.
Among them includes debate on whether to move forward with a low-carbon fuels standard, a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade program, how to foster renewable energy generation via tax incentives or other requirements, how to cut the state off of burning coal to generate electricity, and a host of other programs.
An ally of Inslee’s, California billionaire Tom Steyer, chipped in more than $1 million of his own money to boosting Democratic Senate candidates this cycle. Steyer has become a huge player in national Democratic politics, donating heavily to candidates based on their support for combating the effects of climate change.
Not all of the proposals will need the Legislature on board, but Inslee could be in for a bruising political fight in a Republican-held Senate, which would come at a key moment in his first term. Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Auburn, set off 2016 speculation when he confirmed to the Seattle Times last month that he is entertaining a run for Governor or for U.S. Senate in two years. A sweeping victory for Inslee on his principal legislative effort, buoyed by a Democratic Senate, could go a long way toward convincing Reichert to remain in the other Washington.
TURNOUT AND A TEST FOR PARTY MACHINERY
Statewide, only 28 percent of the almost 4 million registered voters in Washington state had returned their ballots by Monday, according to the Secretary of State’s Office. Secretary of State Kim Wyman was predicting a 62 percent turnout overall, but that figure seems unlikely to be met barring a massive surge of late-returned ballots. Voters have until 8 p.m. tonight to drop off their ballots.
The low returns thus far has been blamed on voter apathy due to the lack of statewide races at the top of the ticket, as well as expectations failing to materialize that the main ballot initiatives on classroom size and gun control would fuel turnout this cycle.
In watching the returns tonight, it’s also worth keeping in mind that Democratic get-out-the-vote efforts in the weekend prior to Election Day have historically tended to lead to surges in the later counts. Whether a similar thing happens this year could be a key decider in the races, but it’s also a test for the new party chairman, Jaxon Ravens, who last fall replaced longtime chair Dwight Pelz.
WHERE TO WATCH
TV Washington will have live coverage of election night returns starting at 7 p.m., which will be aired on television or available via webcast at tvw.org. We’ll be out and about on election night as well, so check back here or follow along on Twitter at @ByPeterJensen for live updates and reactions to the returns.
Each party is hosting several election night events in Seattle and the Eastside. House Speaker Frank Chopp will be joined by Sen. Jean Kohl-Welles, D-Seattle, at an event beginning at 5 p.m. at the Warwick Hotel in downtown Seattle. That’s followed by events with Rep. Suzan Del Bene and Matt Isenhower at the Redhook Brewey in Woodinville at 7 p.m. Supporters of the gun control measure, Initiative 954, will be Edgewater Hotel in downtown Seattle at 7 p.m.
On the Republican side, the main event will be held at the Meydenbauer Center in Bellevue beginning at 7 p.m., with Rep. Dave Reichert, Sen. Andy Hill, and other elected officials in attendance. Sen. Bruce Dammeier and Rep. JT Wilcox will be at an event at the McGavick Center in Lakewood, also starting at 7 p.m.
Your support matters.
Public service journalism is important today as ever. If you get something from our coverage, please consider making a donation to support our work. Thanks for reading our stuff.
