The Washington State Wire conducted a telephone poll of likely voters in the Seattle mayoral primary coming up in August. The poll was in the field for four days over this past weekend.  It had 475 respondents with a margin of error of +/- 4.0%.

You can take a look at the full report and topline data here.

Here is a summary of the key findings.

1. Jenny Durkan has a solid lead among candidates heading into the primary. She was viewed favorably by 49.7% of the respondents, and was named the first choice of 30.1% of voters.  Only Bob Hasegawa was viewed favorably by a comparable amount of respondents (40.0%).

2. The field to be the second candidate through the primary is wide open. Bob Hasegawa is the first choice among voters with 8.8%, ahead of Mike McGinn with 6.3% and Cary Moon with 4.0%.  Among respondents, 28.4% were “unsure” about their first choice for mayor, and 16.6% did not answer. Combined, that is 45% of respondents that are unwilling to publicly voice support for a candidate.

3. If Ed Murray were to get back in the race, and no other candidates were to exit the race, he would likely make it through the primary. Among respondents, 21.5% said they would switch their vote from their first choice to Ed Murray in the primary.

4. If Murray re-enters the race, 39% of Durkan’s support either moves to Murray or becomes “unsure.” With Murray in the race, the race tightens between the two candidates: Murray with 21.5% and Durkan with 18.1% of likely primary voters.

5. If Nikkita Oliver were to exit the race ahead of the primary, 27% of her voters say they would switch to Mike McGinn. That amount appears to be enough that McGinn would make it through the primary over Bob Hasegawa, though the difference is within the margin of error of this poll.

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