Sen. John Braun has called for a broad serological study in Washington State, 2.5x larger than what Germany is conducting on a per capita basis. “Braun says Washington is uniquely positioned to do a great service to
our citizens and the world.”

Our state should lead the way to a greater knowledge and
understanding of this disease. A random serology test of 25,000
Washingtonians would allow an assessment of COVID-19’s
prevalence and fatality rate, and let us make a sizable contribution to
a world struggling with how to address this virus.

Sen. John Braun, the ranking member of the Senate Ways and Means Committee, is one of the most well regarded members of the legislature. He isn’t known as a health policy expert.

Yet, the policy paper he released yesterday is smart and compelling, the kind of thing one might expect from a public health career professional. As such, it’s a meaningful contribution to moving into the next phase of dealing with COVID-19.

Serological studies test for the presence of anti-bodies in a wide, random sample of a population. The presence of anti-bodies signals that the individual had previously contracted the disease.

We alreayd know how many people have died from the disease, or have probably died from it. A serological test can tell you how many people have been infected with the disease. Knowing those two numbers will tell you the infection and mortality rate in ways we haven’t been able to see clearly during this period of COVID spread.

Santa Clara County recently conducted a serological study that suggested the infection had spread “50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.”

Braun cites the Santa Clara study as well as another done in Germany.

A similar serological study in a small German town found 14% of the population had contracted COVID-19 — which would equate to over 1 million Washingtonians, if it proved comparable.

Sen. Braun says the Dept. of Health should “aim to do it within the next two weeks.”

One response may well be that the funds for this sort of study weren’t appropriated. The Dept. of Health is already re-allocating budgeted funds to respond to the COVID-19 virus. Conducting a serological study would bump another priority from receiving funding.

However, given Sen. Braun’s position as Ranking Member on the Senate Ways and Means Committee, it’s reasonable to think that Braun could make those funds available to DOH in any special session.

The primary purpose of the session will be to address budget shortfalls. This might be an easy line item to add to that funding later this summer.

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