A recent article from STAT News highlights an analysis from computational biologist Trevor Bedford that indicates there are likely at least 500-600 cases of Covid-19 in the Seattle area. Bedford, who works at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, estimates that the virus has likely been circulating in the greater Seattle area since mid-January, when health officials detected the first case in the United States.
By the most recent counts, there are 27 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Washington State, 9 deaths from the virus, and 231 people are under public health supervision.
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Bedford tells STAT Reporter Helen Branswell that Seattle is essentially in the same position that Wuhan, China was in when the outbreak began.
“Seattle is effectively in the position that Wuhan was on Jan. 1, when it first recognized it had an outbreak of a new virus, but did not realize the scale of the problem or the speed at which the virus was spreading, Bedford said.
Three weeks later, on Jan. 21, China imposed the most draconian quarantine measures ever deployed in modern times, both in that city and in others to which the virus had spread but where transmission was only just beginning.
‘January 1 in Wuhan was March 1 in Seattle,’ Bedford told STAT. ‘Now would be the time to start these interventions rather than waiting three weeks.’”
Bedford writes that Seattle is at a “critical junction” but that the outbreak is controllable if aggressive actions are taken including social distancing, working from home, good hand-washing techniques, and taking a daily temperature.
“Bedford said Seattle faces a stark choice — take aggressive actions to slow down the spread of the new coronavirus now or face the type of outbreak that engulfed Wuhan’s health facilities and led to a lockdown of the city that remains in place six weeks later,” writes Branswell.
The STAT article also features comments from Samuel Scarpino, an assistant professor at Northeastern University’s Network Science Institute, who agrees that timing is critical in minimizing the spread of the virus.
“The window of opportunity ‘may be already shut. But we have to assume we’ve got some time left,’ Scarpino said. ‘But that means, like yesterday, we have to start seriously testing, putting infection control policies in place, ensuring we have plans for what we’re going to do with homeless or marginalized populations.’”
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