Upcoming Conference | 2019 Re-Wire Policy Conference, Dec 10, 2019 Register

Reviewing predictions for 2018

With the new legislative session now underway, it’s somewhat entertaining to come up with a set of prediction for the upcoming 105 days. That is coming in a separate post.

But, before launching into 2019, I thought it would be worthwhile to review 2018’s predictions.

As it turns out, I made four for last year. So, let’s take a look.

1. Prediction: 2018 will be worse than 2017

Admittedly, this is a hard judgement to quantify. But, I’m giving this a “correct” tag. Here are a few reasons why 2018 was harder than 2017:

In 2018, we started the longest federal government shutdown, something a strong bipartisan majority is embarrassed by. #Metoo politics got local for both Sen. Joe Fain and Sen. Kevin Ranker — to say nothing of the shared civic moment of the Kavanaugh hearing. The 2018 elections were contentious, with Democrats winning more seats than in any national election since Watergate. Rep. Matt Manweller was accused, investigated, and found to have been a serial sexual harasser. Rep. Matt Shea said that the Bible allows for the killing of political opponents. And, don’t forget the kerfuffle on the Public Records Act…

It was an ugly year for many reasons — and in the end, far uglier than 2017.

2. Prediction: Frank Chopp will announce his retirement

Who knew? But that’s what happened…

3. Prediction: Inslee’s fortunes rise with Dem governors

Inslee served as head of the Democratic Governors Association. During his tenure, Democratic governors picked up seven new governors’ mansions. Inslee was on national TV often and built a national network of donors and stakeholders.

His fortunes have risen — no question. The question for 2019: What will he do with them?

4.  Prediction: Inslee’s carbon plan gets its own special session

I got this one sort of right… I said Inslee’s climate change bill was going nowhere in the legislative session. That turned out to be the case.

I also thought then that Inslee would want to press the case, and call a special session to get the bill through. That didn’t happen.

Is it editorial license to say I got this half right?

Maybe, but that’s what I’m doing…

So, I’m giving myself a 3.5/4 for 2018’s predictions. Not bad actually. That’s a score I’m sure to miss in 2019. However, that knowledge hasn’t stopped me from trying.

Here’s to 2019…!