In 2016, the overall Democratic performance in Washington State was about 56%, depending on how one likes to measure it.

This is the level of performance by Democrats across the board in a composition of state and legislative races, according to datasmiths that track this stuff closely.

One can cut or trim various races to change this number a bit, perhaps driving it down closer to 54%. A quick scan of the state executive races from the 2016 general election generally reflects this range.

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That performance had no impact on the 2016 state treasurers race, however. Why? There were no Democrats in the general election.

In 2016, three Democrats faced off in the primary versus two Republicans. In a classic failure to understand the impact of math on the dynamics of Washington’s top two primary system, some of which I’ve discussed here, three lackluster Democratic candidates divided about 52% of the votes on the left.

With overall Democratic performanc lower in the primary than the general historically, and in particular in this race, the primary results allowed both of the two Republicans in the race to squeak into the general election.

With two Republicans on the ballot, Republicans were assured their second statewide seat in the state.

At the time, Republicans only held one statewide seat among the three west coast states. In the relatively blue states of Pacific Standard Time, it took a crowded Democratic primary to allow two relatiely low name ID Republicans to advance.

Republican Duane Davidson won the seat having raised under $100,000, less than most candidates in competitive legislative races.

The candidate that raised the most money that year was state Senator Marko Liias. According to PDC records, Liias may not have been terribly effective in his campaign spend.

About $37,779, or 34% of his total spend, went to consulting. Another $52,000, or less than 50%, went to a media buy. The remaining expenses went to basic campaign expenses, like $1,072 for letterhead and $431 for airfare.

Had Sen. Liias pulled a little over 1.5% from Michael Waite, he may well have become a statewide elected official. Instead, as a result of a confluence of events, including perhaps his spending too much on consulants, Republicans were guaranteed a statewide pickup.

Let’s jump ahead to the Lt. Governor’s race in 2020.

Three Democrats have now announced their candidacies for the lieutenant governor’s seat. While there is only one Republican candidate running for lieutenant governor as of today, there are four Republicans running for governor. There is another independent but conservative in the race, too.

Should one of those candidates decide to enter the race for lieutenant governor, offering two candidates on the right while three candidates divide the left, it’s entirely possible we’ll see a replay of the 2016 race for treasurer.

Fundraising will be the biggest near-term question mark of this relatively short race.

Denny Heck looks like he could move up to $488k from his federal account to a race for lieutenant governor.

Steve Hobbs has about $250k or so that he can use from his legislative campaigns, both in surplus funds and new funds already in place for 2022.

The third candidate for governor is Marko Liias, the same person that underperformed in the 2016 race, creating an opportunity for two Republicans to make it to the general election.

Assuming Liias cannot raise more than he raised in 2016, he would be a decidedly third place finisher in fundraising.

Money doesn’t always equal votes, but there is a close relationship, to be sure.

If Liias stays in the race, and if a Republican jumps in, it’s entirely possible a repeat of 2016 occurs, allowing two Republicans to move to the general election for the lieutenant governor

And, if Inslee joins a new Democratic administration, we could be looking at the first Republican governor since John Spellman elected in 1980.

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