Upcoming Conference | 2019 Re-Wire Policy Conference, Dec 10, 2019 Register

House Dems lead in 7 legislative districts

House Democrats led in 57 races on election night, according to late night returns.  This represents a pick up of 7 seats where Democratic candidates currently lead in House races.

By comparison, on election night in the August Primary, it looked possible that House Democrats could pick up 23 seats.  After a week of late returns, House Dems appeared set to win a majority in November of somewhere between 63-69.

Tonight, it looks like House Democrats will significantly under-perform the primary election returns.  Here are the 7 races where they currently look like they will pick up seats.

  • 5th: Both races have Democrats leading
  • 10th:  Incumbent Republican Dave Hayes trails by .56%
  • 28th:  Dick Muri is behind Mari Leavitt by 2.9%.
  • 42nd:  Vincent Buys lags Democrat Sharon Shewmake by .22%
  • 44th:  Mark Harmsworth is behind by 2.34%
  • 47th:  Debra Entemann leads incumbent Mark Hargrove by 4.8%

These are the races where Democrats currently lead their Republican opponents, though there are a number of races that remain close.

In the primary, post-election night returns trended strongly towards Republicans.  Should that trend continue, House Democrats might only pick up four seats.

By any measure, this is an incredible performance by House Republicans and a significant under-performance by the House Democratic caucus compared to the initial trends coming out of the August primary.