Article by Erik Smith. Published on Tuesday, October 27, 2011 EST.

I-1183 is Ahead 53-38 in Latest Elway Poll – SEIU Initiative Appears Headed for a Second Slam-Dunk Victory

Source: The Elway Poll, Oct. 25

See Also: New Elway Poll Shows 24-Point Shift Against Anti-Toll Measure – Media Campaign May be Doing Trick 

By Erik Smith

Staff writer/ Washington State Wire

OLYMPIA, Oct. 25.—A new survey from pollster Stuart Elway shows this year’s liquor privatization initiative way in the lead with just two weeks to go before election day Nov. 8.

            The poll, conducted last week, shows I-1183 over the 50-percent mark, running 53-38 with 9 percent undecided.

            Those numbers are critically important because in this state it no longer matters only what voters are thinking on election day. Ballots were mailed to all the state’s registered voters last week, and about half of them are typically returned by the weekend prior to the election.

            “Despite a heated television campaign and record amounts of money being spent, these results are not statistically different than survey results going back to August, although there was a dip in support last month,” Elway wrote in his newsletter, which is distributed to subscribers statewide.

            The poll numbers really show that this one is going to come down to the wire, said Alex Fryer of Protect our Communities, the opposition coalition. “Is the net result of this that it is going to be a very close race right down to election day? Yes it is. So it confirms what we knew already.”

The measure, backed by Issaquah-based Costco Wholesale, other retailers and the state Restaurant Association, would shutter the state liquor stores through which hard liquor has been sold since the end of Prohibition. It would allow liquor to be sold in supermarkets and other larger retail outlets, as is done in most states, and would give the state a big cut of the proceeds via hefty license fees.

            The measure is a continuation of sorts of the battle over last year’s I-1100, which was backed by the same interests but failed narrowly at the polls, 53-47. This year’s version contains features designed to neutralize the key arguments raised against I-1100, including a ban on hard-liquor sales at gas stations and mini-marts of less than 10,000 square feet. And unlike last year’s measure, this one replaces the revenue that would be lost when the state’s big 52-percent markup on liquor sales is eliminated. It would generate somewhere between $400 million and $480 million more than the current system over the first five years, according to the state Office of Financial Management.

            Hottest Campaign Going

           “What it means is that despite the deceptive scare campaign from the opposition to protect the profits of out of state liquor dealers, Washington voters are seeing through the hype and choosing to vote yes on Initiative 1183’s plan to get the state out of the liquor business,” said Kathryn Stenger, spokeswoman for the liquor campaign. “We are encouraged by the growing number of 1183 supporters who are joining our campaign to strengthen public safety and generate new resources for vital services and finally end the wasteful government monopoly on liquor sales. And in the next two weeks until election day we will continue to urge all voters to get the facts and vote yes on 1183.”
            The liquor campaign is the hottest thing going in state politics right now. Twenty-four newspaper editorial pages have come out in favor; three are opposed. Big money on both sides is flowing to TV ads and every other form of advertising imaginable—you can’t even watch a YouTube video without seeing a campaign message.
            The opposition is led by national hard-liquor distributors, who see it as setting a dangerous precedent. Although this state maintains monopoly control on hard-liquor sales, in every state where the liquor market is open to free-market competition, laws guarantee that all sales go through distributors. I-1183’s approach would allow Costco and other large retailers to deal directly with manufacturers, allowing distributors to be cut out of the business.

            The distributors have put up most of the $11.9 million for the opposition campaign, with about a half-million dollars from labor interests that stand to lose about 1,100 unionized jobs in the state stores and the Seattle liquor warehouse. Meanwhile, Costco has put up virtually all of the $22.7 million raised for the yes-on-1183 campaign, a record-setting amount for a single contributor and a record-setting amount for a single initiative campaign. All told, the $34.6 million raised is far and away a record for any initiative campaign in state history.

            What it means is that there are plenty of TV ads to come in the next couple of weeks, and if any of them score a direct hit, those numbers could change. But a 15-point deficit shortly before an election isn’t an easy thing to overcome.

         
Source: The Elway Report, Oct. 25

            SEIU Initiative is Cruisin’

            Meanwhile, another initiative on this year’s ballot appears headed for an easy victory. Initiative 1163 is a virtually identical re-run of I-1029, which scored the biggest approval rate in state history in 2008, 73-27.

            Right now the repeat version is ahead 68-16, with 16 percent undecided.

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