The Washington State Liquor Control Board is taking its first steps toward developing from scratch an entirely new retail cannabis industry. As rulemaking begins, it becomes more and more apparent that the big question is the amount of cannabis that will be consumed by recreational users. Other decisions will follow — the number of producers, the number of licenses issued. At the end of this math formula is of course the coveted state tax revenue.
Next week, after further internal review, the board will issue an RFP for a cannabis consultant. State cannabis-community members are raising common questions about the new license provisions for producers. How much cannabis will need to be produced to meet the state’s recreational-user demands? Can the fiscal statement from the Office of Financial Management be trusted? How can anyone estimate the retail market demand for a product that just months ago existed only in a black market? How many new users will the state-approved stores create? And how many users will continue to buy their cannabis on the black market?
In scanning the existing public comments submitted to the board it seems that a good third of the correspondents are relying on the numbers from the OFM report on Initiative 502 — an estimate produced prior to the election for publication in the voter’s pamphlet. But OFM acknowledges its estimate is imprecise. The following are two key introductory phrases from that OFM document:
“Estimates rely on published surveys and reports that acknowledge the difficulty in obtaining accurate and objective data due to the product’s illegal nature. The inherent unreliability of existing data makes analysis extremely difficult.”
And, “There is no way to determine with precision the consumption of marijuana in the state before or after the effective date of the initiative.”
All of this points to an RFP that is more about markets, economics and production quantity than product quality. If the board or its consultant can arrive at an annual number, it is apparent from input from the state’s active medical marijuana producers that the rest of the infrastructure can be determined. The only other tough question will be how much medical marijuana will end up in the recreational-use supply stream?
Outreach Forums
The WSLCB is considering holding public meetings or forums as it develops its first regulations under I-502, for producer license requirements. The agency notes plenty of public interest: Comments on its notice of proposed rulemaking now number more than 60. The WSLCB may hold as many as six of these yet-to-be-determined forums. Brian Smith, spokesperson for the WSLCB, writes in an email that the board will be seeking broad input from the public. He says, “it only makes sense to provide a public forum early to gather that input as we shape the rules. We are scheduling now for late January and February.” Schedules and locations of forums will soon be posted on the WSLCB website.
Your support matters.
Public service journalism is important today as ever. If you get something from our coverage, please consider making a donation to support our work. Thanks for reading our stuff.
