Washington DC lobbyist Bruce Mehlman, published a new slide deck on Friday that explores the various political and economic factors that will likely have an impact on the upcoming midterm elections. Mehlman’s slide deck makes the case for both Republican and Democrat success and evaluates some of the “wildcard” scenarios that could influence the elections in the months leading up to November. Here is our summary of the key information included in the presentation:
“The Case for the GOP”
Mehlman points to several indicators that benefit Republicans in the midterms. For one, the economy is doing well. Another, is that the voter demographic of people who tend to participate in midterm elections favor Republicans. According to data from the Election Project, participants in midterm elections tend to be older and white. In presidential election years, young voters (aged 18-29 years old) make up approximately 16 percent of the electorate; in midterm years, that number drops to an average of 10.8 percent. Voter turnout for African American and Hispanic voters show a similar trend, but without as drastic of a swing.
Source: Bruce Mehlman
Also favoring Republicans is the fact that in the Senate, there are ten Democratic incumbent senators running in states that Trump won in 2016. By comparison, there is only one Republican incumbent Senator in a Clinton-won state.
Source: Bruce Mehlman
Trump also has one of the highest approval ratings by his own party (at 88 percent) compared to other presidents in July of a midterm year.
“The Case for Dems”
Based off historical trends, presidents, regardless of political party, tend to lose seats in the House and Senate in their first midterm elections.
Source: Bruce Mehlman
Also benefiting Democrats is the record number of Democratic candidates in this year’s elections. Previous GOP waves (in 1994 and in 2010) saw spikes in Republican candidates, and this year, Democratic candidates have reached an all-time high (1,475 candidates). Democrats have also performed well in special elections since Trump was elected, which may indicate success in November as well.
Mehlman also puts 2018 high on the spectrum of several “wave indicators.” These indicators signal whether a wave is more likely or less likely to happen and are based on measurements of resistance intensity, Congressional job approval, optimism and enthusiasm gaps, and generic ballot questions.
Source: Bruce Mehlman
“Biggest Wildcards”
Also included in the slide deck are the biggest wildcards in the 2018 midterms that may potentially have an impact on Democrat or GOP success. One wildcard is the threatened trade war. According to Mehlman’s presentation, the “implemented & threatened tariffs & retaliation are projected to reduce GDP by ~$105B (0.42%) & kill 325,000+ jobs over time.” Also included in the list of wildcards are increasing oil prices, increasing health insurance premiums, and foreign relations.
Mehlman also points to several “opportunities for major disruption” that could take place between now and November and have big impacts on the midterms. These include a government shutdown, the firing of Mueller, or the handling of border separations.
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