What’s on the table when newly installed Gov. Jay Inslee and state Attorney General Bob Ferguson go calling in D.C. Tuesday? All we know officially is that they are due to discuss cannabis laws with U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder, the nation’s top law enforcement official, mixing business with pleasure as they attend the Obama inaugural. But here in this Washington, there is plenty of speculation about that meeting. Will they fly home on the red-eye with a blind-eye deal?

This state, of course, is one of two states that legalized cannabis for recreational use last November, and it has plenty at stake in the position the feds will take toward the once-forbidden drug. A high state official with knowledge of the situation tells us some state officials believe Holder may be about to announce a hands-off policy towards Washington and Colorado, and toward the 18 other states that have legalized medical marijuana,MMJ. It’s a way out of a no-win position for the feds, the Democratic president and the two Democratic Washington-state officials in the room.

Some might think the president has already announced a hands-off policy, but it’s not exactly the stuff of certitude. In a December interview with Barbara Walters, he announced that the feds had “bigger fish to fry,” and said they would look the other way when it came to Washington and Colorado. The problem of course is that cannabis remains illegal under federal law. The feds have always maintained it is illegal even as states legalize it for medical use. Obama also appeared to say the feds would look the other way during his 2008 campaign – yet that didn’t keep the feds from hauling MMJ dispensaries into court. And the fear is that as Washington builds a billion-dollar a year industry with legalization-for-everyone, it will be like a red flag to a bull. It’s hard for business to make investment with the threat of confiscation and prosecution hanging over its head.

So the current not-so-firm détente isn’t good enough, and neither is a pledge to a television talk host.

Terrible Political Pickle

State officials have known for weeks that some sort of “decision package” has been lying on Holder’s desk. State sources tell us they believe Inslee and Ferguson will walk out of the room with a formal guarantee. It’s all speculation, of course. But both Washingtons have been talking about the terrible political pickle in which they find themselves, and a formal hands-off arrangement might be the way out. Inslee said during the campaign he opposed legalization, but may not want to get on the wrong side of an issue favored by 56 percent of the people. Certainly it would be a political nightmare for Democrats in this blue state if the feds were to say the people can’t have what they voted for.

Hilary Bricken, perhaps Washington State’s most active cannabis private attorney, thinks the president could solve the issue by issuing an executive order that makes an exception for federal marijuana law enforcement efforts against recreational cannabis businesses in Washington and Colorado, and for the 18 MMJ states.

Others are not so sure. Potential litigation remains a problem, no matter what the feds do. If the feds let Washington and Colorado off the hook with some some sort of blind-eye policy, and let the states proceed, a third party could file suit and demand the law be enforced. That would give the third party control of the litigation and embarrass the state. One politically touchy pathway toward a legal resolution would be for Washington Attorney General Ferguson to get the ball rolling by bringing suit, or otherwise opine that the Washington State Liquor Control Board cannot write rules to implement the new state law. This of course would put Ferguson at odds with 56% of the voting public who supported I-502, many of whom are in the Democrat camp. It’s a tricky political question, and Ferguson and Inslee hardly need to fly to Washington D.C. to be told the obvious or to simply start a dialogue. An answer from the feds, for once, would be nice.

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