A measure sponsored by Representative Sam Hunt, D-Olympia, would automatically register some Washington residents to vote. Praised as a step forward by Democrats, its fate is uncertain as it enters the Republican-controlled Senate.
Secretary of State, Kim Wyman (a Republican) partnered with Senator Pramila Jayapal, D-Seattle, to promote the idea of automatic voter registration in Washington after Oregon and California passed similar laws last year. Although the Senate bill is dead, the House version lives on, for now.
The Details
HB 2682 would automatically register eligible voters who have an enhanced driver’s license, commercial driver’s license, are covered through the state health benefits board or certain programs in the Department of Social and Health Services. The state has already verified the citizenship of these people.
In a press release regarding the bill, Representative Hunt said “It is the right to vote; voting is a right not a privilege.” His comment is partially in response to critics who say that eligible voters should take it upon themselves to make sure that their vote gets cast.
Michael Davis, President and CEO of Enterprise Washington, says that he believes personal responsibility is being overlooked when it comes to voting laws. “Currently there is a plethora of ways to register to vote, and if a citizen wants to participate in the electoral process, they easily can. There should be a measure of personal responsibility to participate and have citizens take a proactive step to register to vote,” he said.
The Real Question
Aside from arguments of principle, the interesting question is whether automatic voter registration would have a marked effect on election results.
Many have concluded that yes, voter turnout does matter, at least when you look at the nation as a whole. An article by The Atlantic explained that although political scientists once believed that voters were nearly identical to non-voters, that view has been widely discredited. This new understanding can be attributed to the work of two political scientists, Jan Leighley and Jonathan Nagler, who argue that differences between voters and nonvoters “are real and have widened, and that the divergence in their views is particularly acute on issues related to social class and the size of government.”
A measure that registers voters through certain government programs could cater to a narrow demographic that differs from the current pool of voters. Representative Matt Manweller, R- Ellensburg, expressed his concern, saying, “There’s the question of what type of person is going into these public agencies? Are they people who tend to vote Republican or Democrat? If it’s skewed in one direction, then you’d probably have concerns.”
Accepting the argument that non-voters are distinct from voters still begs the questions of whether automatic registration increases the propensity to vote, especially in a state like Washington where voting is easy relative to many other states.
Todd Donovan, a professor of political science at Western Washington University, said this about Hunt’s bill: “You’re padding the rolls with people who are least likely to vote, but you still be getting potentially more voters.” He went on to explain that in Washington, the real barrier to voting may be further down the pipeline. “We’re one of the easiest states in the country to register to vote already… so the barriers here are already very low, compared to other states who will push the barriers as far as the Supreme Court will let them, like Mississippi. So, getting people interested is maybe a bigger barrier than just getting them registered,” he said.
Donovan also cited the continuing downward trend in voter turnout both locally and nationally as evidence that making it easier to register isn’t the linchpin in the problem of low voter turnout in states like Washington.
The Turnout Trend
Automatic voter registration is being compared to laws like mail-in voting, “motor voter,” and same-day registration. Each of these laws, like automatic voter registration, increased the convenience of registration. However, evidence of the effect on voter turnout is scant. One example is Canada, which passed automatic voter registration in 1997. Even though only 1 to 2 percent of people opted out of the system, voter turnout decreased.
Without many recent examples to reference, the likely effect of such a law in Washington remains unknown. In a press release Representative Hunt stated, “In 2015, Washington experienced one of the lowest election turnouts in state history, not even breaking 40 percent of eligible voters. Analysis shows that automatic voter registration boosts numbers of registered voters as well as turnout at elections.”
The analysis he is referring to was conducted by Brennan Center for Justice at New York University. It cites ample evidence that convenience reforms have increased the pool of eligible voters, and a few studies show that they’ve improved turnout. There are only two states with automatic voter registration (Oregon and California). They, much like Washington, are states where barriers for registering to vote are relatively low.
It’s worth noting that the laws in Oregon and California differ from the proposal in the Washington legislature. They register people with any driver’s license, something that’s not possible in Washington because undocumented residents are allowed to get driver’s licenses.
Who Are Voters?
It’s hard to say who exactly is and isn’t voting in Washington State. The Secretary of State’s Office collects gender and age data on registered voters, but it does not collect party affiliation. PACs and campaigns collect this type of data through polls and other analyses, but it’s rarely shown to the public.
As of January 31,2016 Washington has 3,973,623 active registered voters. Approximately 80% of the state’s voting eligible population is registered to vote, according to statistics gathered by Michael P. McDonald’s United States Elections Project in 2014.
The Secretary of State also collects the gender and age demographics of registered voters, as well as the number of registered voters who cast votes by county. Although the number of registered voters increases with age, the split between male and female is fairly even.
In terms of turnout, Washington ranks relatively high. 64.8% of eligible voters voted in the last presidential election, compared to 58.6% nationally.
Political Implications
It’s often assumed that whichever party is pushing voting reform expects to benefit from it by getting more of their supporters to the polls. “Nearly all election related legislation is politically motivated and a calculation is always made about how the legislation will impact party control,” said Michael Davis.
Todd Donovan thinks that political parties overestimate the effect of voting laws on party control. “This kind of law, the motor voter law from the 90s, extending early voting, mail-in voting… there are these really clear party divisions in all the states where the Republicans think it’s a really bad thing and the Democrats think it’s a really good thing. And, at the end of the day, for the academics who study this and try to see which party benefits, it’s not clear.”
Representative Manweller agreed. “Many people who suggest structural changes to voting mechanisms in the belief that it will fundamentally change the electorate, tend to be disappointed,” he said
Yet, a small change in the absolute number of votes cast (without a significant change in the proportional makeup of the electorate) can have major effects at the district level, according to Manweller. “Given an electoral environment where people tend to win by 8 or 10%… automatic voter registration of a certain demographic wouldn’t make that much difference. However, in an environment where candidates win by a percentage or less, where the margin of victory is a few hundred votes, I think it will make a difference. Given the fact that Washington has had a series of incredibly close gubernatorial elections and a series of Senate and House races at the state level that have been decided by a few hundred votes or less that a bill like this could have made a significant difference. If you couple that with the fact that we live in a world where the Senate is divided by one or two votes and the House is divided by one or two votes, you’re talking about a bill that could affect the control of the legislature in Washington,” he said.
Time Will Tell
If Washington’s bill does pass, it wouldn’t go into effect until after the 2016 election. Once in effect, the general consensus is that it won’t do much for statewide or national races, but could have a big effect at the district level, where elections are decided by fewer than 1,000 votes.
David Ammons, Communications Director at the Secretary of State’s Office, doesn’t seem optimistic about HB 2682’s chances. “Kim Wyman partnered with a Democrat and was hoping to get some broad support but that hasn’t materialized yet,” he said in an interview.
Whether Washington’s bill passes, all eyes will be on Oregon and California as we head into the 2016 elections. For now, HB 2682 is headed to it’s first public hearing in the Senate Government Operations & Security Committee at 10:00 AM.
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