OLYMPIA, April 26. –True believers in the democratic process get excited every year about the prospect of the voting public coming to their senses and finally “throwing the bums out.” But despite the high level of dissatisfaction with politicians (Congressional job approval polling shows our national leaders threatening to alienate 9 out of every 10 Americans), political insiders know that, according to Newton’s First Law of Physics, a body resting in the Legislature tends to stay in the Legislature. However, politics also adheres to another law of physics: Nature (and the electorate) abhors a vacuum. So when a vacuum is created by an incumbent retiring or seeking a higher office, that’s when it’s time to grab your doorbelling boots and take your message to the people! (That is, after you’ve sucked up to the powers that be, of course.)

Even when there is an empty legislative desk to fill, there is really only a subset of these open races that are considered the front lines in the battle for control of our state. Open swing districts (those which could conceivably elect either a Republican or a Democrat) are the nuggets of gold that political prospectors rush toward. Although, with our “top two” primary system, even strong Democrat and Republican districts can provide some unpleasant surprises to party insiders who were used to sewing up the election for their anointed ones well before November.

With the caveat that no race is set in stone until the May 18^th filing deadline, let’s take a look at the open swing seats that are expected due to public announcements and rumors:

Glenn Anderson, Republican, 5^th District (Issaquah)

Seeking one of the nicest offices in Olympia, Rep. Anderson announced early that he would be filing in the race for Lieutenant Governor against Brad Owen. While the 5^th district is firmly in the hands of Republicans at this time, it is not considered a “safe” Republican district. Republican Chad Magendanz got the memo and filed early, looking to capitalize on his experience as Issaquah School Board President. The Democrats seem to be focused on Cheryl Pflug’s Senate seat in this district, as it would be a more critical vote than a 57^th Democrat in the House.

John Ahern, Republican, 6^th District (Spokane)

Declaring his retirement, but hinting at a City Council campaign, Rep. Ahern leaves open a seat that still has to be considered swing just two years after Republicans took back the Senate seat and both House seats. Larry Keller, the superintendent of the Cheney School District and Spokane attorney Jeff Holy will try to keep Rep. John Ahern’s seat in Republican hands while Dennis Dellwo will try to return to the Legislature after a 16-year absence, and in a new district.

Barbara Bailey, Republican, 10^th District (Oak Harbor)

Making a run at Democrat incumbent Mary Margaret Haugen for her Senate Seat, Rep. Bailey leaves open a seat that is likely to be kept in Republican hands, but could still be in play. The Democrat hopeful, Tom Riggs, is the manager of Camano Island State Park, and the assistant area manager for Cama Beach. According to his website, Tom is “a proud, card-carrying member of AFSCME/WFSE Local 1466.” Looking to defend for the Republicans is David Hayes, a Sergeant with the Snohomish County Sheriff department and the President of the Washington Council of Police and Sheriffs.

Tim Probst, Democrat, 17^th District (Vancouver)

Also looking to find a home in the Upper Chamber, Rep. Probst has elected to take on Senator Don Benton, generating much joy in Republican Julie Olson’s campaign headquarters and some groans in the Senate Republican Campaign Committee. With the 17^th district moving slightly to the right in redistricting, Julie may find herself with some Republican company on the primary ballot before the filing deadline arrives.

Jim Kastama, Democrat, 25^th District (Puyallup)

Senator Kastama’s run for Secretary of State clears the way for Rep. Bruce Dammeier, a strong personality in the 25^th district, to move to the upper chamber (as of yet, no other candidates have filed to challenge him) and leave open his House seat. Democrat Dawn Morrell, a critical care nurse who lost by a handful of votes to Hans Zeiger 2 years ago, is back to try to recapture a House seat for the Ds, while Shelly Schlumpf, President of the Puyallup Sumner Chamber of Commerce is the first Republican out of the gates.

Troy Kelley, Democrat, 28^th District (University Place / Lakewood)

Announcing his bid for State Auditor, Rep. Kelley has Republicans once again salivating at the prospect of taking back a House seat in a district they once owned. Paul Wagemann, a retired Lt. Colonel and repeat contender in this district, will make another attempt to pick up a Republican vote in the House. With no Democrats filing for that seat, one has to wonder if Kelley, a member of the moderate “Road Kill” Caucus, made any attempt to coordinate his decision with House Democrat leadership, and Senator Mike Carrell appears to be the biggest beneficiary as his challenger, Democrat Eric Choiniere, has shifted his campaign to the open House seat.

Mark Miloscia, Democrat, 30^th District (Federal Way)

Another candidate for State Auditor, Rep. Miloscia announced his intent last fall, putting his 30^th district House seat in play. Thanks to the advance notice, three Republican and three Democrat hopefuls have announced. Voters will recognize at least one – Republican Tony Moore, who has run several times for the Senate and House seats and after being appointed to the school board in 2008 has successfully defended that post through two elections. Democrat Roger Flygare, a State Certified Court Reporter and Vietnam Veteran, is out to an early lead in fundraising over his opponents.

Deb Eddy, Democrat, 48^th District (Bellevue)

After 6 years in the State House, Rep. Eddy is doing something exceptionally rare in politics today – following through on a commitment. “When recruited, I promised to serve for six years, and I’ve fulfilled that commitment,” Eddy said. “It’s time to move on and find out what the next chapter of my life will look like.” While all three legislative posts in the 48^th are in Democrat hands, it is home to Senator Rodney Tom, former Republican and one of three Democrats joining Senate Republicans to pass this year’s budget. Democrat Cyrus Habib recently became the only candidate in the field when fellow Democrat and small business owner Santiago Ramos announced the end of his campaign on April 10^th.

These are the front lines in the war for the state House and Senate. But there are a number of intra-party donnybrooks going on as well that are worth watching. Here is a list of safe Democrats who have cleared the way for the next “legislator for life”:

Margarita Prentice, Democrat, 11^th District (Renton)

Thanks to some redistricting black magic, Senator Prentice found herself the only Senator unable to run to defend her seat without moving this year. Rep. Bob Hasegawa appears to have cleared the way for his move to the Senate, and a horse race has begun for his House seat.

Debbie Regala, Democrat, 27^th District (Tacoma)

Senator Regala’s retirement has set the stage for a Democrat title fight between Rep. Jeannie Darneille and Jack Connelly, leaving Darneille’s House seat open and giving a second chance to a number of candidates who lost to Laurie Jinkins two years ago (and a few new faces as well).

Connie Ladenburg, Democrat, 29^th District (Tacoma)

After just two years in Olympia, Rep. Ladenburg is looking to cut her commute substantially and become a Pierce County Councilwoman. David Sawyer and Ben Lawver, two young men who have spent their entire adult lives working political campaigns, are trying to make the jump from labor to management, so to speak.

Fred Finn, Democrat, 35^th District (Shelton)

While the 35^th is safe for Democrats, it isn’t safe for liberals. Rep. Finn’s retirement leaves open a seat that could go either way, although Republicans have thought they had a shot here before and come up empty handed.

Mary Lou Dickerson, Demcorat, 36^th District (Seattle)

In the third most Democratic district in the state (about 78% D after redistricting), the retirement of Rep. Dickerson has inspired no less than 8 candidates to run. The successful candidate can settle in and enjoy representing a district that sent Helen Sommers to Olympia for 36 years.

Phyllis Kenney, Democrat, 46^th District (Seattle)

Only slightly less liberal than the 36^th (fightin’ words in either district), the 46^th recently suffered the loss of a rising star with the passing of Senator Scott White. With Rep. Kenney’s retirement, Senator David Frockt is now the senior member of the delegation, with 2 whole years in Olympia. Five Democrats have jumped into this race, and it would have been more if Sly Cann hadn’t chosen to stick to his guns and take on appointee Gerry Pollet for the other House seat.

Craig Pridemore, Democrat, 49^th District (Vancouver)

Another candidate for State Auditor, Senator Pridemore does not have a “free ride”, leaving an opening on the November ballot. A bit surprising for this race is that neither House member appears to want to move to the upper chamber, giving newcomers Ty Stober and Annette Cleveland a chance to join the legislature without being “Housebroken”.

And for those rare and special Washingtonians interested in Republican primary races, we offer the following for your gaming pleasure:

Jim McCune, Republican, 2^nd District (McKenna)

Rep. McCune has gotten a copy of Roger Bush’s playbook, and is looking to jump from the State House to the Pierce County Council. But to any ambitious prospects out there, don’t get too excited yet, as long time 20th district Republican Gary Alexander has been re-districted here and intends to act like the incumbent, even if technically he isn’t.

Bill Hinkle, Republican, 13^th District (Ellensburg)

At first rumored to be running for Insurance Commissioner, Rep. Hinkle has instead decided to seek employment in the private sector, but the tracks had already been laid for Mathew Manweller as rumors of his candidacy emerged as early as July 2011.

Ed Orcutt, Republican, 18^th District (Kelso)

In another redistricting shuffle, Rep. Orcutt is packing his bags and headed to the 20^th district (or rather, the district headed over to his house and just beyond.) This primary could be a non-event given that, with much advance notice, only Liz Pike and Justin Smith have completed their paperwork to date. Top Two primaries aren’t very thrilling when everybody gets a trophy.

Gary Alexander, Republican, 20^th District (Lewis County)

As stated above, Gary runs in the 2^nd, Ed runs in the 20^th, and everybody’s happy, right? Wait – didn’t Jim McCune get the message to move to the 18^th?

Val Stevens, Republican, 39^th District (Monroe)

With Dan Kristiansen in the core of House Republican leadership, Rep. Kirk Pearson appears to have a smooth ride into the upper chamber. And in the battle for Kirk’s now vacant House seat, at least five challengers have emerged, with Elizabeth Scott inheriting the Val Stevens campaign machine.

And if you still have an appetite for politics after digesting all of this, feel free to try running a Republican as Constitution Party candidate in the 43^rd district (84.9% Democrat) or a Democrat as a Green Party candidate in the 8^th district (65% Republican). That should cure you.

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